Timeline Risk Analysis in Quantum Risk Management

“Quantum computers don’t exist yet, so we’re safe for now.” This is one of the most common — and dangerous — misconceptions in cybersecurity risk management.

The truth? It’s not just about when quantum computers arrive. It’s about how long your systems and data will remain in use when they do.

That’s why Timeline Risk Analysis is a cornerstone of effective Quantum Risk Management.

Multiple Forces, Constant Shifts

The path to quantum-safe migration is filled with uncertainty. Several forces are moving in parallel — each with its own timeline and potential impact.

A recent paper, “How to factor 2048-bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits” by Craig Gidney, illustrates just how rapidly this threat is evolving.

It demonstrates a 20-fold reduction in the physical qubit requirements to break RSA-2048 compared to 2019 — not due to hardware advancements, but because of smarter algorithms and improved error correction techniques.

This should serve as a wake-up call:

Quantum threat timelines are shrinking faster than expected.

The implications of this paper underscore the urgent need to refocus on quantum threat timelines and integrate timeline-based risk analysis into quantum risk management processes.

What Does Timeline Risk Analysis Help With?

Timeline Risk Analysis helps assess your window of vulnerability — the period during which your systems, data, or products remain exposed when cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) arrive.

Key factors to evaluate include:

• Shelf life of systems (products, infrastructure, etc.)

• Shelf life or validity of sensitive data

• Estimated migration timelines to quantum-safe cryptography

• CRQC arrival projections — deterministic and probabilistic

• Business criticality of systems and assets

While many forecasts suggest CRQCs could emerge within the next 5–15 years, breakthroughs like the one mentioned above indicate that migration timelines may no longer align with threat timelines.

Why It Matters Now?

• Quantum migration takes years. From discovery and inventory to planning, implementation, testing, and compliance — it’s a multi-year process.

• “Store Now, Decrypt Later” is real. Adversaries are already collecting encrypted data today with the intent to decrypt it once CRQCs become available.

• Long-lifecycle assets are everywhere. Think satellites, military platforms, healthcare devices, industrial control systems, legal archives, blockchain smart contracts, and more.

This means:

You’re not just protecting today’s infrastructure — You’re safeguarding your organization’s future trust, continuity, and compliance posture.

Key Questions Timeline Risk Analysis Helps Answer

• What systems or data will still be in use when CRQCs emerge?

• What is the exposure duration (window of risk) for each asset?

• Which datasets are vulnerable to “Store Now, Decrypt Later” tactics?

• Which systems and products have long lifecycles (10–20 years)?

• How long will migration take across your environment?

• How does this influence your strategic and budget planning for quantum-safe migration?

Timeline Risk Is Strategic Risk

If you’re only asking “When will quantum computers arrive?” — you’re asking the wrong question.

Instead, ask:

“What will still matter when they do?” “How long will it take us to be ready?”

Timeline Risk Analysis helps you answer these questions and turn uncertainty into a defensible strategy.

Please note, it’s one of several dimensions within a complete Quantum Risk Assessment and Management process — but it’s foundational.

It enables you to:

• Build a realistic and defensible migration timeline

• Justify budget and resource allocation

• Help to identify both early wins and long-term requirements

Want to explore this topic in a more structured and strategic way? Let's discuss how a tool based approach to Quantum Risk Assessment and Management can help assess your organization’s exposure and readiness for quantum threats. Contact us for details.