Answering the often asked Question: "Do We Have Quantum Computers Capable of Breaking Current Encryption Used in Our Systems?"

omputers with the capability to break current encryption systems used today are generally referred to as Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC). The simple answer to the above question is “Currently, we do not have such quantum computers”.

The primary threat from CRQCs emerges from two major algorithms: Shor's Algorithm: A quantum algorithm providing exponential speedup that can efficiently factor large integers, posing a risk to asymmetric key cryptographic algorithms like RSA and ECC used for authentication, key exchange, and signature use cases. Grover's Algorithm: A quantum algorithm providing quadratic speedup for brute force search capabilities, weakening the security provided by symmetric key cryptography.

That said, today's quantum computers are insufficient to run Shor's algorithm or Grover's algorithm at the scale needed to break cryptography used (like RSA-2048 or ECC or AES-256). For example, some earlier estimates indicate that breaking RSA-2048 would require a quantum computer with millions of qubits and error-correction capabilities that are not yet available.

However, we cannot be complacent. While today's quantum computers are still relatively small and have limited capabilities, ongoing research and development are rapidly advancing their power. Experts predict that within the next decade, quantum computers could possess the computational power necessary to break the cryptographic algorithms currently used in digital systems with certain probability.

A great resource for understanding expert views on the timeline is the annual "Quantum Threat Timeline Report" from The Global Risk Institute and evolutionQ Inc. The latest report states: "The expert responses we collected suggest that the quantum threat might rise to prominence much faster than many might anticipate. For example, almost half (46%) felt it was more than 5% likely already within a 10-year timeframe, and more than a quarter of respondents indicated a likelihood of about 50% or more".

In Summary, the answer to the question "Do We Have Quantum Computers Capable of Breaking Current Encryption Used in Our Systems?" is Not yet, but it's a matter of when, not if.

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